Forecast update: 10 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026. All times below are CDT.
Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to become a hurricane Thursday and approach the northern Gulf Coast Friday, prompting hurricane and storm surge watches for parts of the U.S. coastline.
In its 10 a.m. Wednesday advisory, the National Hurricane Center said Isaias had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The storm was about 540 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River and moving east-northeast at 8 mph.
Forecast track and timing
Isaias is forecast to continue east-northeast Wednesday, then turn northeast and north Thursday and Friday. The center should pass north of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula Thursday, Oct. 8, before accelerating toward the northern Gulf Coast Friday, Oct. 9.
The hurricane center’s latest forecast discussion said the projected track shifted slightly east. The forecast shows maximum sustained winds near 110 mph over the Gulf Friday morning and near 105 mph offshore Friday evening. By Saturday morning, the center is forecast to be inland over Alabama as a weakening tropical storm.
Forecasters have not pinned down the exact landfall location or hour. Some of the stronger forecast scenarios move faster and farther east, and the track could still shift.
Rapid strengthening is possible over the next day or two. Some weakening could occur near landfall as winds higher in the atmosphere become less favorable, but the hurricane center said it remains uncertain how quickly the storm would weaken. Isaias is also expected to grow larger as it approaches the coast.
Coastal watches issued
The following watches were in effect with the 10 a.m. advisory:
- A hurricane watch from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida.
- A storm surge watch from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida.
- A tropical storm watch from Louisiana’s Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line to west of Bay St. Louis, and from east of Indian Pass to the Aucilla River in Florida.
A watch means the specified hazardous conditions are possible. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the coastal watch areas around midday Friday, with hurricane conditions possible late Friday.
The hurricane center said the risk of damaging hurricane-force winds is increasing in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and Mississippi. Residents in the hurricane watch area should prepare for potentially lengthy power outages.
Storm surge and flooding concerns
If peak surge arrives at high tide, water could rise 5 to 7 feet above ground somewhere along the coast from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida, including Mobile Bay.
Other projected surge heights include 3 to 5 feet from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs and from Indian Pass to the Aucilla River; 2 to 4 feet from the Aucilla River to Yankeetown; and 1 to 3 feet at Lake Pontchartrain. Actual flooding will depend on the storm’s track, tides and local conditions. Residents should evacuate if local officials tell them to do so.
From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to bring 3 to 6 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 10 inches, along the central Gulf Coast from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
Across much of the broader Southeast, 1 to 3 inches are possible, with localized totals up to 5 inches, as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash flooding, urban flooding and isolated river flooding are possible. These are regional estimates, and rainfall will vary by location.
Swells from Isaias are expected to reach the Gulf Coast late this week, creating dangerous surf and rip currents. Gusty winds and heavy rain could affect parts of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula Thursday.
Residents should monitor official forecasts and local emergency instructions as the storm develops. The next intermediate advisory is scheduled for 1 p.m. Wednesday, followed by the next full advisory at 4 p.m.
