(WDNews) – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
According to NOAA, there is a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The forecast includes 13 to 19 named storms, with 6 to 10 becoming hurricanes. Of those, 3 to 5 could reach major hurricane strength—Category 3 or higher. NOAA says it has 70% confidence in these predictions.
Officials attribute the increased activity to warmer ocean temperatures, weak wind shear, and active conditions from the West African Monsoon. These factors, combined with high ocean heat content and weak trade winds, help fuel stronger and longer-lasting storms.
“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm emphasized the risk beyond the coast. “As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” Grimm said.
NOAA is rolling out several upgrades this season to improve forecasts and warnings:
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The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System is getting an upgrade that’s expected to improve storm tracking by 5%.
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Tropical cyclone advisories will now be issued up to 72 hours in advance of expected tropical-storm-force winds or storm surge.
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The Global Tropical Hazards Outlook has been extended to a three-week window.
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Spanish-language products and improved forecast graphics will help reach more people with critical updates.
NOAA will also provide a rip current risk map during active storms and introduce new radar technology on its hurricane hunter aircraft to scan storm structure and ocean conditions below.
“This outlook is a call to action: be prepared,” said Ken Graham, Director of the National Weather Service. “Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”
NOAA’s outlook is for seasonal activity and not specific landfall predictions. An updated forecast is expected in early August, ahead of the season’s typical peak.
Courtesy of NOAA
